NFL · resolved market
Will the Eagles beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff811f862de767f0665891e041201bfad4346ff5f2fad80f92b663d20b39be5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Yes | 71c | 5,197$3,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.99 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 52c | 1,820$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.2 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 48c | 890$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yes | 47c | 674.57$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.42 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 399.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 68c | 187.38$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…c96dbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…9fa6backed No | 47c | 91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…74d7backed Yes | 53c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2178backed Yes | 47c | 69.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…1c3dbacked Yes | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7d…71dfbacked No | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…ee9fbacked No | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…6720backed Yes | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…1731backed Yes | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 46c | 36.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…f322backed No | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419c…5a67backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Eagles beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will the Bills beat the Commanders in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will the Bills beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will the Chiefs beat the Commanders in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will the Commanders beat the Bills in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will the Commanders beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.