TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Aftyn Behn win TN-7 Special Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$441,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$413,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $441,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ce2…e868backed Yes9c34,084$3,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes10c17,465$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.6540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+204.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99c1…9b20backed Yes7c11,031$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.3277.4%2 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes14c10,922$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.355942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes21c10,908$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,245.536145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes0c9,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes12c8,561$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.894850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Yes24c6,608$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.911338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1327…9237backed Yes10c6,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes13c6,185$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.4219236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes11c6,070$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.7137844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes1c5,799$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.392722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba6…aba7backed Yes11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes10c4,190$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.093043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+91.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes11c4,029$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.194163.4%26 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+57.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes20c3,600$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes3c3,315$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.42948.3%14 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+55.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8eb1…85b8backed Yes10c3,265$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.86616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes9c2,936$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.46147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-89.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39f2…146ebacked Yes14c2,501$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.421618.8%3 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes5c2,414$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9311419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3d9abacked Yes13c2,298$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.7270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes16c2,166$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.765837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabd6…7807backed Yes6c2,151$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes9c2,021$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.31911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-82%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd749…bf72backed Yes1c2,004$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-75.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e34…af5abacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002157.1%12 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+72.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes15c1,999$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.85771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes12c1,998$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.84443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed Yes1c1,974$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x705b…7483backed Yes15c1,814$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes14c1,770$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.312339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…777bbacked Yes9c1,710$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes14c1,438$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.238036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Yes11c1,364$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes10c1,231$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1510950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd65a…be6bbacked Yes3c1,200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes13c1,200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed Yes15c1,156$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.011816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes12c1,046$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9048…2759backed Yes12c1,018$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.261546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2603240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Yes10c1,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-91.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa733…0e46backed Yes11c999.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+74.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe3…a828backed Yes16c987.5$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes8c954.02$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.329958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes2c900$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes11c831$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925238.5%20 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes14c816.22$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.274353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes12c772.31$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.689129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd3…f7d3backed Yes16c743.86$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x369f…2422backed Yes10c680.57$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes20c665.12$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.851915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked Yes11c634.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.973033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes11c620.65$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.062913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf062…72b0backed Yes13c600$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes14c599.5$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.933023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes9c561.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.511538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6cf…61d2backed Yes22c557.22$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4a…b79bbacked Yes10c536.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…f184backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes17c500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.52433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…e330backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e0…1482backed Yes11c492.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8b…5945backed Yes12c425$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511540%6 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+124.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Yes17c404.16$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b3…e480backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…58e0backed Yes17c394.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e7…77b1backed Yes7c367.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1232…629ebacked Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4b…7540backed Yes14c350$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f6…7465backed Yes10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc226…101fbacked Yes12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4211031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d70…edfabacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ae…d48fbacked Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes11c298.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.84450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+540.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes9c292.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked Yes10c284.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes12c249.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8478…d150backed Yes10c244.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes30c240$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x307e…9eb9backed Yes23c232.06$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4755…6d6cbacked Yes13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd1c1…e319backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98bb…5b64backed Yes12c212.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18ed…d4ffbacked Yes19c211.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dda…2839backed Yes10c203.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes28c200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+65.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x556f…9263backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x478e…324dbacked Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x855b…bef7backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ab…790bbacked Yes6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedad…1af7backed Yes10c170$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+51.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33f9…a3ccbacked Yes17c168.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.