Us Politics · resolved market
Will Matt Van Epps win TN-7 Special Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecb209079bdbdb22704c61a47ce1d8f31e83fce8e0763360e4bb17d04a7baad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $716,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $838,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $716,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 3c | 41,375$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.16 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…e868backed No | 11c | 28,053$2,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…e2bdbacked No | 6c | 20,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 20c | 18,998$3,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,821.68 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 10c | 18,128$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.42 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 12c | 13,348$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.22 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 20c | 11,181$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 11c | 9,118$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.33 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 11c | 8,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…146ebacked No | 11c | 7,467$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.41 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked No | 11c | 5,243$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.2 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed No | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 24c | 4,676$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.38 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 14c | 3,648$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.92 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 10c | 3,333$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.3 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 16c | 3,022$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed No | 8c | 2,315$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.13 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed No | 12c | 2,160$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 8c | 1,989$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 1c | 1,974$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…5effbacked Yes | 76c | 1,967$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 1,906$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.47 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed No | 11c | 1,883$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9c…73bebacked Yes | 70c | 1,820$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed No | 2c | 1,751$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 11c | 1,671$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 1,358$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 7c | 1,236$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa733…0e46backed No | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed No | 1c | 1,013$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…684bbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…16d8backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 12c | 980.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…e1babacked No | 11c | 972.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…f7d3backed No | 16c | 892.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed No | 11c | 699.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 12c | 534.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…e480backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b19…2283backed No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655f…09ccbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 19c | 490.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed No | 11c | 463.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe3…a828backed No | 16c | 448.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed No | 16c | 442.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed No | 15c | 428.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 17c | 420$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed No | 9c | 418.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…ed09backed No | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 19c | 335.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…1482backed No | 12c | 306.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 15c | 296.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54c…3dbabacked No | 9c | 277$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 10c | 229.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 200.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 14c | 195.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…2334backed No | 13c | 163.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…64d1backed No | 16c | 159.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…10fdbacked Yes | 73c | 135.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 66c | 109.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…4942backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…197dbacked No | 22c | 96.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…3e6bbacked No | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 75c | 53.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…5facbacked No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…a73ebacked Yes | 77c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…ad41backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Van Epps win TN-7 Special Election?this page
- Will Aftyn Behn win TN-7 Special Election?No won
- Will Terrie Christie win TN-7 Special Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.