Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8e1c1fe372157d2e033e1bc9f38715537ceec4672bc7c7989136fe96f3bcd9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked Yes | 45c | 1,829$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 2c | 1,659$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 1c | 1,653$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 16c | 1,399$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.54 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked No | 4c | 1,323$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb2…2e13backed No | 62c | 1,275$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 1,250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 72c | 1,244$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.43 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 39c | 943$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.58 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 897.36$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 43c | 861.1$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 3c | 764.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 579.26$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 42c | 567.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.34 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 544.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 522.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 426$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed Yes | 42c | 341.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…ad12backed Yes | 78c | 339.76$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 22c | 339.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 47c | 309.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 293.93$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 34c | 259.16$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.13 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 16c | 226$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 219.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 12c | 217.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 204.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 11c | 197.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 187$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 73c | 184.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 178.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 60c | 174.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 74c | 160.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 148.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 132.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 129.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…6788backed Yes | 38c | 126.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 115.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 67c | 114.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 65c | 113.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 58c | 111.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 103.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 65c | 91.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 44c | 88.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 55c | 83.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 81.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 40c | 78.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 34c | 71.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 48c | 63.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 68c | 59.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 70c | 56.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 44c | 52.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…9bfabacked Yes | 63c | 52.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…90bcbacked No | 65c | 47.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 70cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…7419backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 64c | 44.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 38c | 43.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 42.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 40.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 39.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 30c | 39.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 39.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 38.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 70c | 37.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 69c | 35.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 35.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 35.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 44c | 35.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 53c | 33.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 37c | 31.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 30.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 64c | 29.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 28.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 73c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.