Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70e2f87283f62970fa41eed5dd14fd321097e8ab8c699166a132a0b382f0f24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeb2…2e13backed Yes | 59c | 1,860$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked Yes | 4c | 1,718$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 15c | 1,314$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 932.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 889.66$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 725.88$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 608.61$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 4c | 542.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 540.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 25c | 470.36$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 12c | 451.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 419.17$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…45d5backed Yes | 3c | 358.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 293.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 5c | 292.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 274.08$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 26c | 272.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 238.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked No | 73c | 225.87$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 219.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 7c | 216.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 215.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 187.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 174.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 171.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 26c | 157.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 154.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 150.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…4328backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 12c | 133.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 117.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 115$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 113$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 110.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 11c | 98.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 83.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 79.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 69.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 63.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 63.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 69c | 58.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 57.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5989…4b87backed Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 37c | 52.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 48.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 34c | 40.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 40.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 66c | 40.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 40.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…da2cbacked Yes | 30c | 36.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 42c | 36.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 35.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 55c | 34.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 68c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 63c | 17.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.