Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa02c6371006e1abb00f5f7f5470e6a9cc546c2ba3beb856f154be13cff3e07e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 1,295$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.72 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 41c | 493.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.22 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 45c | 433.49$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 22c | 299.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 290.78$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 266.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 242.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 198.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 58c | 167.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 156.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 155$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 125.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 123.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 110.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 97.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 38c | 96.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 96.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 88.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 38c | 82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 41c | 73.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 65.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 55c | 56.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…1f77backed Yes | 75c | 53.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 51.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 62c | 50.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…442abacked No | 61c | 50.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 50.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 49.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 48.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 61c | 46.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 60c | 46.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 40c | 42.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 63c | 39.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 37.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 35.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 62c | 31.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 39c | 31.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 50c | 30.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 27.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 43c | 26.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 26.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 48c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.