TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,542 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes49c433.82$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.211636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No54c407.65$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0913357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes59c388.51$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6314842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes49c386.81$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.798636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes47c348.07$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.685827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No45c333.61$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6415558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8db…458dbacked Yes59c316.09$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c294.39$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.435258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No55c283.87$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.166533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No26c268.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No77c251.06$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.56757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes48c233$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5111039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No60c225.19$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c225.11$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.258856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No33c219.67$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.182010%2 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes40c217.75$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2821844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No67c217.49$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.483231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No54c203.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.272454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes43c200.81$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.614233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes44c196.89$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes78c192$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.692075%15 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes72c166.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.175961%36 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No60c162.88$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.819160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c159.47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No37c158.47$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.194052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No67c157.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.049337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes40c156.17$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c155.92$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.327521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c154$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No49c146.62$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.681442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No22c143.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4114553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes77c136.55$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.553154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes50c127.31$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.55475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes55c124.82$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.233828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No41c115.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.326346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes50c105.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.622437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No33c105.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1912249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d57…11f8backed Yes44c101.25$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.514100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+151.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes79c101.12$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.322955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No56c98.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.242544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No45c97.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.833551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes42c94.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8318638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No62c90.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No12c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c88.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7316051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No53c82.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.825464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No59c79.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.121266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c76.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3339414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No51c75.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.687842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2316738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes70c71.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.891457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes50c69.66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No61c69.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.145383%44 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes60c67.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.184868.8%33 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c65.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.512152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No52c64.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.924564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes35c63.71$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.677951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5470…b04cbacked Yes42c62.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.511560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f81…7ce2backed No44c60.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.811045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe35…57c3backed Yes34c59.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes50c59.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6312640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No58c59.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.571172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+109.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No44c57.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.342128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes48c56.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.23650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No47c56.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.374852.1%25 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes34c56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6910733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes50c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.55957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No28c54.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.377560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes41c54.23$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2318158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes41c51.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.492650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c50.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.491,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No59c50.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.891275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No21c50.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.836445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9315766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.111053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes50c49.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.584566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c48.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6334354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes41c48.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2812238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes72c46.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.13928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes39c46.41$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No28c44.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.724637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No36c44.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0614445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19cb…a867backed Yes34c43.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e5…c08fbacked No60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd165…b94cbacked Yes40c41.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes41c40.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1210837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No25c40.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1214521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe970…1006backed Yes44c40.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes45c40.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0316254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.818348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes47c39.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.192147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No58c39.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.977345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1aa…7429backed Yes39c39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes43c38.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8446330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb674…e97abacked No61c37.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No57c37.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.15066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.