World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d52ab4eed77f71c1e30ed85c724669c11e39c177988b7ef4bbdd01cb899fa51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 43c | 349.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 77c | 338.76$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 286.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 45c | 224.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 63c | 213.31$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 195.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 189.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 44c | 187.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 56c | 186.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 52c | 180.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 31c | 178$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 53c | 136.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 129.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 127.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 124.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 117.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 109.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 50c | 102.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 100.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 53c | 95.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…62afbacked Yes | 21c | 95.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +375.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 21c | 94.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 66c | 91.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 43c | 86.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed No | 53c | 84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 74c | 82.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…b04cbacked Yes | 51c | 80.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 76.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 74.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 73.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 53c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 70.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 70.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed No | 53c | 64.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 43c | 63.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 49c | 62.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 49c | 61.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 36c | 60.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 44c | 57.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 50c | 56.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…b090backed No | 76c | 56.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 59c | 55.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed Yes | 49c | 51.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 62c | 50.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 50.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 49c | 50.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 35c | 49.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 24c | 47.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 46.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 47c | 45.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…0caebacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 53c | 42.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 48c | 41.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 45c | 40.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 48c | 40.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 80c | 39.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 36.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 56c | 35.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 35.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 53c | 34.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 54c | 32.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 39c | 30.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 30.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…5757backed Yes | 50c | 30.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…0a12backed Yes | 67c | 29.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 63c | 27.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 24.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 59c | 24.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 56c | 24.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.