World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f3f948f2f010bca5251308d99733c4d48575d8b504bc86508aece8ef4426fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 890.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 582.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 446.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 432.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 355.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 213.85$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 7c | 167.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 14c | 118.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 104.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 12c | 100.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 23c | 97.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 96.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 13c | 82.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 80.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 77.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked No | 74c | 44.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 72c | 32.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 75c | 26.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…dc60backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.