World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ad3cc318634172f51bceca82fdbbb04f40a366c6d7ec31dadc0afbebd68a64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 40c | 2,252$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.95 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 1,312$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.49 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 1,096$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.61 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 1,011$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.78 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 849.52$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.5 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 41c | 490.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 51c | 418.44$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 384.06$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.36 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 50c | 371.18$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.76 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 52c | 315$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 51c | 314.72$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 294.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.54 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 285.27$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 280$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 267$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 249.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 221.24$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 49c | 219$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 30c | 216.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 203.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…dc70backed Yes | 52c | 203.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 46c | 200.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 199$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 191.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 174.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 53c | 170.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…2c83backed Yes | 58c | 167.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 157.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 47c | 152.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 146.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 139.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 14c | 131.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 14c | 131.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…01bbbacked Yes | 50c | 131$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 126.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 123.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 121.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 119.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 118.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 63c | 117.54$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 46c | 113.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 51c | 111.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 108.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 71c | 107.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 49c | 105.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 104.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 39c | 102.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 102.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…177abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…f570backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…0dacbacked Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 99.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…da50backed Yes | 50c | 98.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 49c | 97.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 51c | 89.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 78c | 89.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5593…732ebacked Yes | 35c | 86.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 85.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 50c | 83.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed Yes | 50c | 83.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…f8bcbacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 50c | 80.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 45c | 80.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 78.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 76.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked Yes | 51c | 76.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 47c | 74.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 72.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 55c | 70.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 70.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 68.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 36c | 66.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 52c | 65.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 62.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 61.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 68c | 59.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 69c | 57.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 57.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked Yes | 52c | 57.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 70c | 56.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 55.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 46c | 52.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.