World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea3a89ba773267f9d78b3f714040acc9f59c3280874fa08e8f3be38a8e247544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 21c | 2,310$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.21 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 921.34$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 713.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 24c | 507.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 499.97$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 77c | 344.8$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 9c | 268.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…155ebacked No | 75c | 264.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 14c | 262.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 199.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 26c | 196.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 175.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 175.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 22c | 167.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 166.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 147.92$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 18c | 141$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 135.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…44e5backed Yes | 20c | 103.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…9c82backed Yes | 20c | 101.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 24c | 99.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 96.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 80c | 93.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 93.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 22c | 92.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 86.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 28c | 75.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 18c | 69.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 66.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked Yes | 16c | 64.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 22c | 63.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -70%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 58.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…7419backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…5576backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 32.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 71c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 77c | 21.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 65c | 21.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 68c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 71c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.