TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe7db…959bbacked No65c1,969$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.171,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes14c1,800$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.6460236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes39c1,615$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.451,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b8a…0af1backed No74c1,448$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.84366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes9c1,001$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.9191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes76c947.22$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.245148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No71c903.35$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.4986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No19c837.54$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.272,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked No53c836.79$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4407051.4%36 W · 34 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No22c457.39$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.544,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No10c454.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.266,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb56c…30f3backed Yes28c395.51$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.3310455.8%58 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No44c388.89$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3860523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No11c357.64$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed No70c357.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25034050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No36c344.91$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.282,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No15c340.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7156322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c287.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.631,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes26c266.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.123,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes47c254.31$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes21c239.93$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.6729948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No15c231.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c226.92$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.286,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes78c209.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.27057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes40c202.12$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.6431442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No65c200.65$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes60c197.18$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.676835.3%24 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes12c196.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes44c186.47$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4320133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes13c183.41$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3546452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No22c182.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.194,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c160.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.759,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes25c160$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12039951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes36c149.52$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2848523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes26c146.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.614542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No51c134.73$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.622,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No20c128.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9939956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes10c125.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.62,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No19c124.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.082,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No26c121.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.724,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…997dbacked Yes22c119.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.273237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes24c118.74$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda04…6c48backed Yes35c113.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No29c108.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.272,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c107$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.024,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes27c104.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5111927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes13c104.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7634533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes21c102.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5438454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c90$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.25,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes11c88.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.981,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes15c86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.122740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes49c81.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.726045%27 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd4…6084backed Yes20c72.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5813534.1%46 W · 89 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes32c71.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2313838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes36c71.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3661676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No70c64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5332440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No66c63.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1843139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed Yes55c63.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6210857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes64c62.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9682268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No47c62.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.176059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed No73c60.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9622959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed Yes80c58$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6811983.2%99 W · 20 L+21.5wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No71c55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0549543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes24c52.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.911,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No51c51.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.112,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes30c49.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.336157.4%35 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked No68c47.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4342061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes41c47.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.775455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes25c44.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3447239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No39c35.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.782,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No75c35.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No42c32.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.863,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No75c32.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6616566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x718b…1bf2backed Yes62c30.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.362360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No48c29.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.039262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3221472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c24.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.234,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9428…5cecbacked Yes58c21.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.051952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked No80c21.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1714060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No74c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5441966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No77c19.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1562275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked No70c18.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.652552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.74755.3%26 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.