Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcbfe12a6b1ae7f37d7508a9cc86f0fb9f754410cc9d0d3a8d7b2bffe7a72525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked No | 65c | 1,969$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.17 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 14c | 1,800$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.64 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 1,615$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.45 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…0af1backed No | 74c | 1,448$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 9c | 1,001$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.91 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 76c | 947.22$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 71c | 903.35$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.49 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 837.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 53c | 836.79$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 457.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 454.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 28c | 395.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.33 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 44c | 388.89$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.38 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 11c | 357.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 70c | 357.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 36c | 344.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 15c | 340.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 287.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.63 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 266.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 47c | 254.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 21c | 239.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.67 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 231.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 226.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 78c | 209.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 40c | 202.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.64 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 200.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 60c | 197.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 12c | 196.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 44c | 186.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 13c | 183.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.35 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 182.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 160.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 149.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 26c | 146.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 134.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 20c | 128.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 125.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 19c | 124.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 121.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 22c | 119.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 118.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 35c | 113.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 108.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 107$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 27c | 104.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 13c | 104.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 21c | 102.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 88.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 49c | 81.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 20c | 72.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 32c | 71.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 36c | 71.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 70c | 64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 66c | 63.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 55c | 63.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 64c | 62.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 62.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 73c | 60.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 52.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 51.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 30c | 49.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 68c | 47.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked Yes | 41c | 47.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 25c | 44.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 35.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 35.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 32.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 75c | 32.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 62c | 30.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 48c | 29.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 24.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 58c | 21.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 80c | 21.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked No | 70c | 18.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.