Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5759420ec7cc8682b4250200427fda14ba1e3704d1281a6846c04f7f1956b459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 1,031$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 600.19$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 582.01$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.49 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 271.5$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 271.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 264.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 227.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 210.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 195.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 63c | 177.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 71c | 139.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 26c | 124.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 73c | 114.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 36c | 108.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 37c | 103.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…da9abacked Yes | 37c | 103.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 36c | 99.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 96.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 92.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 81.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 20c | 80.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 78.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 29c | 70.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 64.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 29c | 51.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 51.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 50.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 63c | 50.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 35c | 43.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 41c | 41.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 34c | 41.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 39.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 36.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 43c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 63c | 33.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 30.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 25.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 24.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 78c | 23.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 61c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 56c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2211…7458backed No | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 65c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.