Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12be30a60378492a1f141cbc7f7715a6f59edd78f894749f2113e52529f1a4c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 1,259$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 3c | 730.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 545.59$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 498.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 492.08$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 51c | 443.48$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.82 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 344.25$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 4c | 334$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 46c | 287.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 48c | 247.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 237.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 34c | 233.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 228.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 6c | 210.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 203.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 195.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 183.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 183$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 173$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 50c | 172.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 160.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 143.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 142$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 49c | 127.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 114$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 77c | 106.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 49c | 103.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 98.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 60c | 97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 94.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 86.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 52c | 84.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 81.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 59c | 80.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 80.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 70.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 47c | 67.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 65.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 64.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 62.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 32c | 60.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 70c | 59.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 52c | 56.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…c766backed Yes | 52c | 54.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 42c | 49.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 48.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 47.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 47.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 46.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 46.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 51c | 42.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 38c | 42.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 56c | 41.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…59bbbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 52c | 33.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…eedebacked Yes | 50c | 31.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 30.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 30.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4a…5164backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 29.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 28.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 50c | 26.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 55c | 26.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 26.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 58c | 25.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 49c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 48c | 23.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 65c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 58c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 47c | 21.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 53c | 19.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 68c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.