Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54f8c06cb5a7a68ef65029b104c5f47e3779c47c66c6d9da6a5b172250c66625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 924.02$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 52c | 512.03$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.1 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 469.66$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 48c | 465.54$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.38 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 433.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 271.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 233$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 228.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 67c | 227.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 214.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 196.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 179.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 22c | 138.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 76c | 132.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 24c | 131.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 42c | 125.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 112.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 105.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 91.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 90.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 52c | 86.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0f…633ebacked Yes | 47c | 84.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 83.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 16c | 75.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 72.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 42c | 70.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 69.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 73c | 69.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 68.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 67.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 66.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…fb74backed Yes | 47c | 64.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7eb3backed Yes | 47c | 64.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 44c | 61.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 44c | 61.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 45c | 54.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 76c | 49.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 45.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 44.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 44.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 42.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 64cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed No | 80c | 38.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 38.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 61c | 35.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 34.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 57c | 26.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 75c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 63c | 20.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 80c | 19.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 63c | 17.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.