Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5fcca2effeafd1d0265dd40998f49fa2017d7ef077ec1b1871c7a052b04f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 970.63$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 15c | 503.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 209.79$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 209.7$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 182.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 175.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 168.06$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 144.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 144.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 140$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 28c | 130.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 40c | 125.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 117.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 40c | 113.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 104.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 95.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 49c | 73.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 73.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 73.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed Yes | 23c | 72.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 74c | 72.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 62.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 48c | 62.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 59.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 42c | 59.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 58.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 58c | 51.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 50c | 49.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 51c | 49.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 43.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 38.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 79c | 35.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 44c | 33.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 31.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 71c | 30.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 30.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 26.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 65c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2292…65a2backed Yes | 50c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 21.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 20.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…d2a6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 19.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 19.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 60c | 17.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.