Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c761cdd0bf60ff6c353a3b384da7ea49e36393dfb1f487fc823c761e215aca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 20c | 373.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 325.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 320.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 192.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 69c | 188.76$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 37c | 171.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 159.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 159.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 156.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 149.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 60c | 146.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 10c | 140.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 10c | 127.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 115.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 60c | 111.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 110.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 51c | 107.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 31c | 97.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 19c | 85.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 31c | 84.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 52c | 77.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 73.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 45c | 69.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…d247backed No | 47c | 63.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 63.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 61.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 32c | 58.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 58.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 53c | 44.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 44.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 44.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 42.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 39.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 48c | 39.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 38.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 36.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -80%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…82dbbacked Yes | 53c | 34.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 44c | 32.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 66c | 32.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 53c | 32.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 43c | 26.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 52c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 57c | 24.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…b0f7backed Yes | 53c | 23.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…3ae8backed No | 64c | 21.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 73c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 20.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 53c | 19.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.