TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes20c1,392$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.624,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No9c575.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked Yes27c489.97$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.7910865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes11c470.24$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.429,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes30c434.87$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.551,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No46c409.86$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.571,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes35c327.63$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.345,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes69c297.83$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0354154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes26c289.11$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.1744757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes19c273.58$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.4673927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes22c263.87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.053836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes21c241.43$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.661,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No40c225.49$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.74,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes24c214.6$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6150648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes18c207.87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.621,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No61c204.03$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.343,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No80c202.02$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0824066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes67c199.84$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0743238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c197.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes17c185.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.4214638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…2b8ebacked No57c168.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.691136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf908…6718backed Yes27c158.89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.264148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f7f…2e64backed No65c158.12$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.942962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No56c156.62$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.464021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No24c141.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.61,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No52c137.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…f557backed No76c130.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No69c130$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.431,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b9…3d3bbacked No77c129.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa6…610bbacked Yes16c123.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.571040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+68.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes21c119.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6710053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c114$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.365,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes28c109.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.881,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e9…ea16backed Yes24c101.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.983312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-62.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e9…62a2backed Yes49c98.27$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.641442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No32c95.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9937942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes64c92.34$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.436057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe1a…47a3backed No49c90.54$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x258b…db84backed Yes24c86.52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.895728.1%16 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed Yes15c86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.124770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes69c85.73$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.635742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x380b…c8f7backed Yes68c80.57$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.57540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes24c78.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2642130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1add…a268backed Yes54c77.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.435248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes22c74.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2413531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee24…bd15backed No39c74.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.226636.4%24 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes34c71.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.642,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes20c69.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9415152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No78c64.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No73c63.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4641258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes32c60.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.56053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes19c59.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4829740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes34c57.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4211438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes24c56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7698738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed Yes52c53.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4339157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.639439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d9…07e7backed No49c50.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.821450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes23c48.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1325549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked No57c47.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.975139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No60c45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8517555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.514,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes34c42.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.443050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No71c42.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1444553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes52c40.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3343859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc53f…5c8bbacked Yes39c38.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.74650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c37.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No53c36.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4520928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed Yes46c35.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4239158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No76c32.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No45c32.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6838758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes73c32.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No56c32.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.932,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e97…7773backed No80c31.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8812271.3%87 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.181,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed Yes53c29.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8944659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed No80c28.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed No77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202025%5 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-49.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed No62c21.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5718033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb44…dc60backed No64c21.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.812050%10 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x733b…f7f7backed Yes73c18.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.997847.4%37 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No65c18.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0561752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No80c14.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7812363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf211…385dbacked No77c14.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.467040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.