Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a851cb50fb61697a0704bda127ee80dcbdf0173d935891d0027a3b6f0ea0b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 871.28$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 70c | 341.41$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 337.55$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 3c | 335.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 335.82$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 58c | 305.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 16c | 223.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 208.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 6c | 205.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 204.71$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 198.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 56c | 188$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 184.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 184.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 40c | 166.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b8…3a96backed Yes | 76c | 164.38$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 22c | 157.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 150.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 143.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 141.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 140.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 135.41$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 123.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 123$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 118$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 10c | 116.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 46c | 114.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 48c | 109.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 67c | 104.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 99.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 23c | 89.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 89.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 52c | 82.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 63c | 81.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 78.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 73.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…36babacked Yes | 44c | 65.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 39c | 63.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 30c | 61.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 69c | 58.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 66c | 58.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 39c | 52.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 66c | 49.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 36c | 48.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 71c | 45.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 79c | 45.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 70c | 45.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 42.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 62c | 41.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 49c | 41.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 32c | 40.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 33c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 34c | 33.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 54c | 33.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 32.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…47c7backed Yes | 63c | 31.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 45c | 30.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 69c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 67c | 26.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 52c | 26.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…682fbacked Yes | 55c | 25.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…c8f7backed Yes | 76c | 25.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 42c | 25.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked No | 54c | 23.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 78c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 70c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 68c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 65c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.