Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f0b585744a998353bd39d42ba4783ebb19239303ddef377c2f6755a17131b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 721.47$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.25 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 61c | 541.07$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.14 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 442.7$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 418.34$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 3c | 365.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 234$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 220$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 53c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 190.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 45c | 123.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 47c | 114.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 111.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 49c | 102.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 92.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 26c | 89.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 81.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 72.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 59c | 72.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 50c | 71.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 47c | 71.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 64.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 60.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 50c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 52.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 47.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 39c | 46.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 58c | 40.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 37.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 42c | 33.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 52c | 32.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 46c | 30.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 72c | 30.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 44c | 27.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 67c | 26.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…5743backed No | 57c | 26.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 25.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 46c | 24.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 62c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 67c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 53c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 65c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.