Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc962d0d80c4b38b5ef5cb23f158e894d60147d5a226d5e674af161dbc32ac3bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 529.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 30c | 229.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fb…1babbacked Yes | 51c | 194.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 176.23$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 60c | 157.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 150.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…310fbacked Yes | 36c | 140.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 24c | 123.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 77c | 109.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 104.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 80c | 99.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes | 31c | 97.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 81.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 29c | 75.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 71.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 64.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 50.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 80c | 43.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 43.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 31c | 41.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 40.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 62c | 40.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 40.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 80c | 37.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 51c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 34.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 76c | 27.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 56c | 27.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed No | 80c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 80c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 20.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 72c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…8a4abacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.