Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe69d9d63645eb1d68c3c6b5dd654d74bba380e32b51c290644d02905f8b28fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 1c | 19,694$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 912.11$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 21c | 460.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 70c | 276.01$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 274.63$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 30c | 216$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 173.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 155.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked No | 71c | 140.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 134.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 132.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 125.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…07fcbacked No | 73c | 115.24$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 80c | 102.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 88.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 86.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 38c | 70.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 75c | 49.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 49.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 48.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 67c | 48.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 45.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…fcdbbacked Yes | 67c | 44.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 33c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 30.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 55c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 70c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed No | 78c | 23.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 67c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 73c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 17.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…644abacked No | 71c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 16.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 16.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 15.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.