Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63ea55898937587ed61fed7e73722a0fab10d4ac2c1a4c6e9575973cb4e9b030
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 2c | 1,265$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 8c | 436.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 407.93$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 32c | 337.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 231.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 46c | 204.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 178.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 150.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 50c | 149.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 149.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 122.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked No | 15c | 117.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 114.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 12c | 102.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 33c | 87.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 86.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 77c | 86.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 46c | 86.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 22c | 81.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 16c | 70.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 67c | 54.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 54.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed Yes | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 30c | 48.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 53c | 47.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 55c | 46.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 59c | 44.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 43.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 42c | 38.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…e255backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 31.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 29.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 50c | 28.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 46c | 26.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 55c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 57c | 21.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…cdc7backed Yes | 55c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…7482backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 62c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 57c | 19.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 75c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked Yes | 75c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.