Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94c4fb499c027a683a04d685b2b72260b5e4d92dda8e50f301c454a8e0d3956a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 42c | 269.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 237.56$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 50c | 215.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 175.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed Yes | 75c | 145.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 114.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 28c | 98.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 34c | 98.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 47c | 91.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 50c | 86.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed No | 46c | 81.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 68.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 64.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 68c | 58.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 55.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 36c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 34c | 52.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 51.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 50.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 30c | 47.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 52c | 45.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 67c | 43.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 73c | 40.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 28c | 40.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed Yes | 78c | 39.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed Yes | 56c | 38.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 36c | 38.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 55c | 37.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 35.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 78c | 32.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 36c | 30.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed Yes | 75c | 29.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked Yes | 78c | 28.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4df…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 58c | 26.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 62c | 25.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed Yes | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed No | 51c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 70c | 20.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…6b5fbacked Yes | 77c | 20.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…cae3backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…c001backed Yes | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 74c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1d…8e23backed Yes | 77c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d8…ea25backed Yes | 76c | 17.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…b349backed Yes | 75c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2f…c23ebacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…6cf7backed Yes | 75c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 37°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.