Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe61d36df6ca393d711813c366b68ae83853ec56b72555b8c0a596a2f1cbe34de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 4c | 714.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 431.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 8c | 410.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 21c | 310.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 69c | 299.95$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 14c | 277.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee66…b679backed Yes | 13c | 227.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 15c | 225.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 215.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 18c | 210.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 205.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 41c | 200.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 192.48$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 191.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 158.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…f7e3backed Yes | 13c | 119.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +245.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 63c | 98.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 31c | 84.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed Yes | 23c | 80.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 20c | 78.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…d72fbacked Yes | 18c | 70.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed Yes | 31c | 62.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 34c | 52.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9faf…4138backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…6cfebacked Yes | 28c | 44.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 42.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…dbd8backed Yes | 38c | 36.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 76c | 33.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…1f81backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 26.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 62c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 71c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 78c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.