Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2a46d4fd772e4adb1a91caed8b7455bdc7db18f143f87ce19c8f8f06d64f38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 14c | 671.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 25c | 541.54$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 467.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…ec75backed Yes | 11c | 445.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 295.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 76c | 231.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 227.26$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 177.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 159$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 64c | 158.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 20c | 143.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 25c | 128.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 27c | 127.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 123.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 28c | 123$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 112.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 97.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 73c | 82.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 78.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 75.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed Yes | 28c | 74.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 69c | 74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4926…60d5backed Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 65c | 59.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5e9fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 26c | 57.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 31c | 52.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…abaebacked Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 23c | 48.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 48.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 30c | 48.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c1…9422backed Yes | 35c | 47.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 47.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf88…b5c6backed No | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 78c | 46.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…7191backed No | 65c | 45.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 35c | 43.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00db…c663backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9757backed No | 78c | 37.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 76c | 37.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 35.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…fce0backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…fc6cbacked No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 32.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 79c | 32.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 32.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…680bbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 66c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 79c | 22.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 65c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 72c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 53°F or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.