Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x044464f1e21d5ad7c749c2927eabc78a701db3294e983d34bffbc51af9d59fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 411.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 30c | 323.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.08 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 73c | 246.28$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5a…d32abacked Yes | 10c | 224$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 188.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 66c | 178.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 50c | 153.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 139.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 135.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 78c | 133.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 21c | 128.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 74c | 122.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 59c | 122$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 104.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 24c | 88.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 80.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 34c | 74.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 78c | 60.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139c…97c4backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 38c | 56.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 79c | 55.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…e65fbacked No | 73c | 54.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 67c | 52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 23c | 51.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 79c | 44.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 44c | 42.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…5837backed Yes | 79c | 40.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 67cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 76c | 40.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 69c | 35.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed Yes | 80c | 33.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 65c | 32.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…c637backed Yes | 80c | 31.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…5cd9backed Yes | 77c | 29.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 79c | 29.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 45c | 28.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 74c | 28.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 64c | 24.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…0be8backed Yes | 74c | 21.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 70c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…b0f7backed Yes | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 77c | 20.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed Yes | 78c | 19.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…d898backed Yes | 66c | 15.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 78c | 15.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 78c | 14.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.