Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4610b61267375bb5905fa4b1c643347dd2a286d81bfb286cbb968231b12b9bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 68c | 582.5$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 423.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 41c | 408.56$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.89 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 72c | 370.58$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 363.49$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 65c | 295.88$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 236.89$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 49c | 225.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 52c | 220.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 185.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 39c | 169.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 67c | 149.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 39c | 143.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 33c | 135.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 123.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 38c | 108.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 107.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 92.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 90.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 85.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 35c | 76.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 75.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 65.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 17c | 63.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 61.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 51c | 61.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 60.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 72c | 59.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 31c | 55.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 31c | 49.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked Yes | 35c | 48.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 37c | 45.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 36c | 43.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 29c | 43.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 75c | 37.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 42c | 30.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 66c | 28.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 48c | 27.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 52c | 24.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 68c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1542…ee9dbacked No | 62c | 18.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 80c | 16.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.