Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7234d177f5f49b5393e68e93eb5a8dbdbc9a50a4319c92b8391bd0714cc66488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,582$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 20c | 831.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.61 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 2c | 648.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…43cabacked Yes | 5c | 464.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 17c | 347.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed No | 79c | 319.87$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 24c | 317.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 279.33$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 33c | 276.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 267.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 255.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 78c | 237.54$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked Yes | 42c | 226.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 15c | 226.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 204.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…4ad4backed Yes | 24c | 201.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 24c | 194.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 164.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 24c | 154.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 19c | 135.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 20c | 134.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 30c | 122.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 67c | 120.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 25c | 120.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 69c | 114.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 15c | 112.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 18c | 104.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 27c | 103.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 103.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 94.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 49c | 92.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 91.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 23c | 90.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…538bbacked Yes | 33c | 70.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 30c | 70.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 41c | 56.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…5865backed Yes | 21c | 54.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed Yes | 24c | 49.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 22c | 49.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 25c | 48.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 36c | 40.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 36.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 32c | 35.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 33.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 33.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 78c | 29.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 75c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 74c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 71c | 20.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…6b7ebacked No | 75c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 75c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 15.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a1c1backed No | 78c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.