Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3f1753f0ce94ba5758fc320d6e17bfd0c14790b578c97714ba37353529fed5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 793.8$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.85 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 69c | 221.97$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 219.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 195.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 173.04$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 56c | 144.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 458 | 62%284 W · 174 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 36c | 141.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 69c | 138.42$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 482 | 45.9%221 W · 261 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 34c | 132.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 43c | 124.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 31c | 114.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 104.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 54c | 103.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 95.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 694 | 35.3%245 W · 449 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 75c | 91.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 80.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 63c | 76.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed Yes | 46c | 75.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 73.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 73.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 68.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 53c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 29c | 55.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 41c | 53.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 64c | 53.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 48.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 33c | 46.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 45.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 42c | 44.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 44.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 41.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 725 | 66.2%480 W · 245 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 52c | 38.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 30c | 33.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 71c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 66c | 28.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…68a3backed No | 70c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 79c | 26.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed No | 69c | 26.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 79c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 252 | 64.7%163 W · 89 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 79c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…70a5backed No | 53c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 74c | 21.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…5865backed No | 63c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 71c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.