Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8793391b58098245b0841c2e25d59c2c5dbde7b41896eefc266a01cbe5c2c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 51c | 4,030$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.03 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,347$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 37c | 938.46$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.2 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…a6f7backed Yes | 1c | 933.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +7,677.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 1c | 869.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.13 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 511.48$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 476.54$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.98 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 413.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed No | 44c | 381.51$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 45c | 350.04$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.15 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 19c | 296.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 48c | 270.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.07 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 248.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed Yes | 41c | 241.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.76 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 62c | 231.43$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 70c | 229.56$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 15c | 173.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.79 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 65c | 161.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 46c | 161.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 19c | 135.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 135.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 32c | 125.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 124.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 118.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked No | 64c | 110.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 108.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 17c | 91.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 72.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 71.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 16c | 70.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 70.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked Yes | 45c | 69.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 69.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 67.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 23c | 63.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 72c | 63.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 61.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 68c | 58.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 53.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 26c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 37c | 45.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 30c | 45.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 73c | 42.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 41.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 73c | 40.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 38.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 29c | 35.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 59c | 34.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed No | 51c | 32.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 31.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e3…a500backed Yes | 43c | 31.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 65c | 26.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…fac1backed Yes | 67c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…0200backed Yes | 65c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…dc56backed No | 74c | 21.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2c…5dc1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…cc2dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 72c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 72c | 17.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 75c | 15.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.