Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2359f485eeaca03b0533ae287eb573ed0417d8f036738ab24db877fbf389aea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 913.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 9c | 733.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 185.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 175.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 17c | 173.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 172.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 155.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 24c | 152.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 130.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 114.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 16c | 109.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 16c | 84.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 23c | 83.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 22c | 80.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed No | 77c | 75.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 64.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 67c | 59.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 67c | 59.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 35c | 56.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 78c | 52.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 40c | 42.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 33c | 41.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 37.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 77c | 29.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1c…6a1ebacked No | 67c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.