Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x311243092c3894df264223f97fbc1ee59161b9d27135b416ef7cdfb70d890a8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 455.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.61 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 13c | 414.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 366.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 61c | 298.23$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.74 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 294.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 235.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 12c | 163.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.76 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 159.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 153.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 68c | 139.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 11c | 123.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 78c | 102.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 19c | 99.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…77dbbacked No | 30c | 95.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 93.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 75.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 69.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 71c | 68.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 20c | 64.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed No | 80c | 64.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 26c | 55.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 41c | 51.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…ae25backed No | 80c | 44.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 74c | 41.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 40.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 39.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…521bbacked Yes | 29c | 35.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 51c | 31.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 49c | 27.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 80c | 18.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 79c | 17.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.