Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd29dda36b563c46a6e658712e7c0640b534e2c218670ddebe4773297ff8f39c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 5c | 642.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 11c | 408.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 321.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 171.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 161.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 161.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 157.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 144.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 70c | 128.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 32c | 113.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 73c | 98.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 22c | 98.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 81.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 28c | 73.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 64c | 73.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 71.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 31c | 65.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed No | 73c | 61.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 55.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 54.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 53.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 23c | 47.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 46.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 67c | 44.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 73c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 68c | 30.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…5624backed No | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 25.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 69c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 61c | 20.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 66c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 62c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 17.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 73c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 73c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 73c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.