TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdacf…352a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Lol, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$10.54
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7.54
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.67
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5.78
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.25
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.2
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+32%+$4.37
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.67
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.11
All 10 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$10,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+104.1%+$10,408.16
Knicks vs. Warriorsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Trail Blazers vs. Warriorsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.17
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$5.29
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogsbacked Kennesaw State Owls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.