Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341d26279e2233320f6d0ea534f5938802f10ca94d1a1302d37f6b403b7cb383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 19c | 1,761$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.88 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 75c | 1,248$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.28 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 75c | 1,142$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.3 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,031$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.87 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 24c | 1,012$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.44 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 38c | 871.88$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.93 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 57c | 590.92$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.52 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…675cbacked Yes | 72c | 538.99$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 537.88$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 76c | 531.33$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 10c | 510.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 478.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 459.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 18c | 398.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 56c | 385.45$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 62c | 327.95$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.54 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 63c | 320.24$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.47 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 254.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 64c | 249.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 43c | 245$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 74c | 236.89$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 40c | 222.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 219.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 19c | 208.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…232dbacked No | 51c | 198.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 8c | 198.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 32c | 187.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 75c | 185.71$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 8c | 183.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 69c | 176.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 161.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 19c | 145$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 77c | 145$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 16c | 144.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7d9bbacked No | 26c | 143.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 141.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3047…f69cbacked No | 31c | 123.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 75c | 123.69$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 78c | 112.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 72c | 112.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…8c15backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 110.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 107.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed No | 12c | 102.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…6126backed Yes | 69c | 101.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 11c | 101.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 71c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 45c | 93.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 13c | 87.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 69c | 85.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 39c | 85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 35c | 82.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 82.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed No | 13c | 82.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 44c | 81.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed No | 27c | 80.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 74c | 75.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked No | 16c | 73.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…3451backed No | 38c | 72.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 26c | 72.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3a…d3c4backed Yes | 70c | 71.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 31c | 70.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 18c | 67.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 40c | 67.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 75c | 66.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…eefdbacked No | 28c | 64.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 64.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 55.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 53c | 53.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…dbddbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 49.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 48.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 28c | 47.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 68c | 47.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 49c | 45.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…058dbacked No | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 64c | 45.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…3d06backed Yes | 69c | 43.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…352abacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 38.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 79c | 37.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 67c | 31.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.