Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e6ce878fed541ac1e5df571b3d4d0c765db027579317af88dc54d9a7a7fe55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9643…1874backed Yes | 0c | 6,804$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 12c | 996.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 631.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 530.43$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 18c | 466.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 10c | 450.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 9c | 418.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 364.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 351.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 18c | 334.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 16c | 305.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 25c | 302.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 29c | 251.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 242.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 233$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 229.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 228.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 228.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 27c | 222.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 11c | 218$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 209.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 200.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 195.24$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 189.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 173.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 173.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 13c | 170.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 154.71$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 150.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 33c | 147.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 145$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 143.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 141.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 22c | 137.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e4…1dbabacked Yes | 37c | 135.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 131.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 40c | 126.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 120.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 29c | 120.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 14c | 112.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 109.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 109.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…6126backed Yes | 21c | 101.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 24c | 100.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 20c | 98.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…eefdbacked Yes | 21c | 96.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 77c | 84.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 17c | 81.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 81.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed Yes | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 69c | 79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 26c | 77.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 16c | 77.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 17c | 72.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…7fb6backed Yes | 25c | 70.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed Yes | 19c | 69.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 67.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…3d06backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…2d5dbacked Yes | 34c | 59.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 25c | 55.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 23c | 53.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 26c | 45.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 41.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 39c | 41.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 35c | 41.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 29.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…8693backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 43c | 25.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…8c3fbacked No | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 22.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 76c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…101dbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.