Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd93b78f12b7af529729b3fdf9bee22a6566be7f33449c014c78f02335871b464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 10c | 1,931$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 1c | 1,638$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked Yes | 80c | 1,007$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.54 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed Yes | 66c | 910.36$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.08 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 52c | 708.75$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 15c | 677.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed No | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed No | 3c | 409.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdba0…d76abacked No | 3c | 384.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 38c | 252.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 14c | 249.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 8c | 196.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 22c | 180.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 62c | 179.45$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 59c | 129.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 46c | 119.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 18c | 104.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 102.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 40c | 102.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 20c | 85.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 59c | 84.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 82.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 22c | 81.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 60c | 75.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 34c | 72.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 38c | 72.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 44c | 72.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…505fbacked No | 44c | 68.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 62c | 63.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 28c | 53.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 58c | 53.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 52c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 36c | 45.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 25c | 45.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 64c | 42.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 67c | 38.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 29c | 37.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 79c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 36.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 71c | 35.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed Yes | 63c | 34.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 57c | 31.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ed…e351backed No | 50c | 31.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 30.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 62c | 29.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 62c | 29.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 49c | 28.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 50c | 27.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 40c | 27.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 50c | 27.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…c5d5backed No | 39c | 25.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…5252backed No | 40c | 25.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 67c | 23.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 22.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…352abacked Yes | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0c…67f9backed Yes | 63c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 69c | 18.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 70c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.