TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3f5…5142backed Yes0c7,856$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes1c4,532$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.321,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes5c1,254$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5524238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes1c1,060$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.773030%9 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes8c891.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.917859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes18c699.91$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5719338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecd…3923backed Yes8c488.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.292213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-80%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c422.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.012,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes21c399.09$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee2…07a2backed Yes19c385.87$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.52933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes16c344.84$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8784124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes18c334.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.811,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes20c320.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.681,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f3e…4802backed Yes15c299.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes9c280.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9211122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes27c279.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4956131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c273.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8721429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c264.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.651,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No78c250.87$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2753437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes19c205.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6718668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c196.86$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes22c196.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.984,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1c…7f60backed No78c181.19$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.182759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes9c168.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2619123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c161.68$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes22c160$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.219022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes12c155.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.492860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes13c151.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73839.5%15 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes18c136.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes27c135.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.124029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes12c130.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No78c127.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.143675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No76c127.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.244037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf028…c88cbacked Yes28c125.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No76c119.63$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9311652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f1…5823backed Yes10c104.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes22c103.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9428517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes25c102.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9110936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No75c100.93$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8644646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes10c100.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2613260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes27c99.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.987644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dde…1f8bbacked Yes22c98.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes27c97.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.146823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90a8…7a97backed Yes29c96.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.871741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+115%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes15c92.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.93030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes27c85.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.185152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5121…a989backed No75c85.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.16666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.86729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes25c77.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.615940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7716…43b6backed Yes24c77.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.873821.1%8 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes24c68.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8117643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes20c65.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4518837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes18c64.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6730428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0209…2f35backed Yes30c62.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c60.89$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.642,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No75c60.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes25c56.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.872944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c54.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe883…36d6backed Yes26c53.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No74c53.16$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3edb…5c3ebacked Yes27c51.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.525742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8cf…dbffbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1790734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No79c49.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.414170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Yes22c48.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.612433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes28c46.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.993246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No76c46.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1581756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes25c46.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.531,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb297…ddd7backed Yes23c46.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes22c46.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.146317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…6ce9backed Yes26c42.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No77c31.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4511977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee0c…c6b6backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-68.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c64…be43backed No76c28.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.914461.8%89 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x797b…68b4backed No79c25.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabea…3257backed No77c25.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.846473.4%47 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f2…3374backed No77c23.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.47580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No78c20.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5116159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdacf…352abacked No77c20.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.671080%8 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No76c20.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No78c19.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.352155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No62c18.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0456265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c16.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.14,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No79c15.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.259,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No70c15.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.612,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.