Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64271358528fadefaddf9e9777bcb890c9738ec3faff280051a683b10a2528ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 1c | 4,445$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 1,479$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.91 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 65c | 958.02$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.53 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 56c | 714.71$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.66 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 77c | 688.92$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.45 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 8c | 578.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 26c | 399.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.84 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 387.64$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 39c | 352.02$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.06 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 329.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 75c | 325.07$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 324.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.08 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 57c | 320.64$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 51c | 317.08$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.56 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 313.58$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed No | 16c | 270.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 32c | 250$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 64c | 234.94$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 218.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 25c | 217.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 209.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…4802backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 80c | 199.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 64c | 199.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 181.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 80c | 177.38$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 40c | 175.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee2…07a2backed Yes | 27c | 172$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 18c | 163.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 71c | 155.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 148.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 27c | 137.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 65c | 133.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 123.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 119.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 78c | 118.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 117.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…c88cbacked Yes | 28c | 117.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 111.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 11c | 110.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 32c | 98.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 19c | 98.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 31c | 97.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 41c | 97.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf052…0ce7backed Yes | 68c | 97.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…7a97backed Yes | 29c | 95.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +115%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 30c | 93.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 22c | 89.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…6e1ebacked Yes | 44c | 86.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 22c | 79.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 77.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 49c | 76.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed No | 37c | 75.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes | 67c | 75.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…bbafbacked Yes | 25c | 73.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 31c | 70.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…5ad8backed Yes | 26c | 70.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 61c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No | 76c | 68.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 66.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5c3ebacked No | 74c | 65.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 63.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 38c | 63.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked Yes | 37c | 63.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 56c | 58.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 27c | 58.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 69c | 56.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 56.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 55.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 45c | 53.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 51.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…bdd1backed Yes | 27c | 50.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…a21dbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…b947backed Yes | 79c | 49.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 37c | 49.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 47.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 43c | 47.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…0959backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb297…ddd7backed Yes | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe883…36d6backed Yes | 32c | 44.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 55c | 43.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 52c | 43.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 30c | 42.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…17c7backed Yes | 31c | 42.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…cde0backed Yes | 30c | 41.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +236.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 70c | 41.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 80c | 40.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.