TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,789 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes22c5,123$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.594,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes21c4,836$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.8329520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes29c4,139$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.5536648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes3c2,313$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.821,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f94…8ffebacked No65c1,972$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6891233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+126.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes16c846.2$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.152,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes20c782.98$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4584124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes35c761.81$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.2354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes30c655.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.841,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No73c651.67$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7716335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No74c629.29$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.8941845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No66c622.68$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.6533018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c597.94$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.992,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Yes16c561.02$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes9c505.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2438655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13530813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No65c499.65$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed No75c489.42$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.587360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes30c459.6$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.017644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed No76c440.11$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.174257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes29c426.3$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8224238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes30c414.59$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.065,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes21c404.33$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes14c399.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9916116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes12c394.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes20c389.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.131,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No75c381.48$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1619060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c370.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed No76c320.48$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4413260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9471…eb8abacked Yes9c315.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.733417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c314.72$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.835,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed No70c299.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed No67c299.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.364447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes38c292.91$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9811122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No69c290.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes16c279.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed No58c274.02$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1818668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3edb…5c3ebacked No78c261.73$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed No75c249.7$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4226236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x941f…767ebacked No69c248.48$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.42850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes7c246.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4135133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes20c243.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.782927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes10c227.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7511223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No75c219.65$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4167158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes24c215.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.142,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes24c208.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.211,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c206.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.087,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes23c205.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6945127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe8…55cabacked Yes15c198.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.812015%3 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes19c190.04$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No68c189.71$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1631262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa502…4c89backed No78c188.08$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.381662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes13c173.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.471,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb61b…4dc9backed No72c159.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.893030%9 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f3e…4802backed No78c158.39$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.85742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c145.96$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1c…7f60backed No67c144.33$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.632759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0297…6e1ebacked Yes35c142.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes21c141.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.525332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecd…3923backed Yes42c139.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.922213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-80%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes29c132.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.696845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed No76c131.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5814062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No78c126.19$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.763675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes20c126.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7781234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes28c109.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.930428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes37c109.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2718837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes26c105.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6413035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes45c105$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee2…07a2backed No66c100.9$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.24933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes27c97.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3311362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes29c96.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.862138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe883…36d6backed Yes19c96.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No63c96.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9752155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d3…5710backed Yes28c95.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.493823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes26c90.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1453437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0849…d655backed No74c89.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.271464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c89.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.597,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes21c89.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.766137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e61…aaa7backed Yes14c86.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x354e…c0b2backed Yes14c84.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.893246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes13c77.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.141,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No72c75.38$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0449854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x525c…23acbacked No77c75.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0678…a21dbacked No72c72.19$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.86742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc203…1ad2backed No69c70.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No70c69.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.654037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0e9…59f9backed Yes25c63.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2091…d606backed Yes29c63.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd6…4ebfbacked No79c62.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-10.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed No80c58.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes41c56.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c56.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes51c55.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5433349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No63c55.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…7a48backed Yes29c54.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes28c53.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc365…f983backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.