Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9b665d287080c4f989bd5de5bd4288ea96a0c449ad444fdf030950d2d075dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee2…07a2backed Yes | 1c | 9,191$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 2,099$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 14c | 823.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 17c | 470.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 8c | 370.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 6c | 331.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 18c | 309.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 12c | 309.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 18c | 282.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x704d…aceebacked Yes | 16c | 236.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…4802backed Yes | 21c | 199.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 11c | 198.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…2f35backed Yes | 11c | 177.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 76c | 172.12$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 24c | 154.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 149.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10d…b67abacked Yes | 26c | 127.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 125.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9262…3db8backed Yes | 24c | 117.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 11c | 117.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 102.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 100.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…c88cbacked Yes | 22c | 98.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 19c | 90.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 90.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 22c | 84.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 15c | 84.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 17c | 83.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 82.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 28c | 82.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…2265backed Yes | 21c | 81.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 80.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…9f20backed Yes | 19c | 78.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 18c | 77.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7d…ab11backed Yes | 19c | 76.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 21c | 71.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 71.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 26c | 71.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 16c | 63.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 19c | 58.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 55.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 50.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 20c | 49.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb297…ddd7backed Yes | 21c | 49.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes | 21c | 48.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 47.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…e30ebacked No | 79c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 79c | 26.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 26.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…c6b6backed No | 74c | 23.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…3f09backed No | 80c | 21.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.