Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x750057419a68f86580de2a64320a489b2e90cde303ce7c02cc85a42c2dee10e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade9…1990backed Yes | 1c | 1,362$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,353$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 2c | 1,296$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 2c | 1,276$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,229$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 885.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 2c | 879.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 2c | 804.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 2c | 643$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…3801backed Yes | 5c | 591.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 543.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 537.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 11c | 490.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 6c | 340.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…0e36backed Yes | 9c | 330.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10d…b67abacked Yes | 8c | 328.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed Yes | 3c | 325.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 6c | 299.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…c2c2backed Yes | 10c | 295.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Yes | 7c | 245.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…2265backed Yes | 11c | 203.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 8c | 187.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…9f20backed Yes | 6c | 184.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 11c | 170.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 11c | 122.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 74c | 27.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.