Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e8ab61638458684c5695c26f6101f86704ae7238d3e42c0e6f69d2d94e9c7a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f56…ea85backed Yes | 9c | 1,557$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 10c | 1,235$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 9c | 1,175$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,068$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 16c | 546.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 537.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 10c | 396.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 387.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 15c | 318.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b6…5c95backed Yes | 15c | 307.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 6c | 299.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 10c | 292.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…e3fabacked Yes | 11c | 291.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…4802backed Yes | 11c | 264.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 5c | 262.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 8c | 245.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee2…07a2backed Yes | 19c | 244.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…2f35backed Yes | 8c | 239.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 237.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…ed3fbacked Yes | 13c | 230.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 202.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 7c | 191.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 8c | 157.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 8c | 147.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed Yes | 8c | 142.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 8c | 136.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 10c | 135.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Yes | 14c | 135.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…2656backed Yes | 13c | 130.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 9c | 127.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 9c | 117.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 16c | 117.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…5606backed Yes | 10c | 115.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 13c | 105.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 10c | 104.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…9f20backed Yes | 12c | 93.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 15c | 91.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 17c | 85.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked Yes | 18c | 77.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 15c | 71.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 15c | 70.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…c361backed Yes | 15c | 68.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…e50ebacked Yes | 16c | 66.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 22c | 62.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…c6b6backed No | 75c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.