TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,296 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes18c4,807$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.782,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes28c1,639$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.6512033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes13c1,384$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8526738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked No74c1,297$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.7716840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes8c849.18$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.047,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No77c792.22$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8819060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes15c792.12$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0934219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes44c757.63$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.319338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No34c735.29$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.2911925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed No78c640.55$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.42944.8%13 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19a5…9ccabacked Yes2c593.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes18c546.57$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.785,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No62c517.65$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.2616335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c501.36$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.691,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes18c492.83$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f90…4e02backed Yes25c466.16$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6214613.7%20 W · 126 L-19.1wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes68c429.5$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2713260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes21c410.34$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.132,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87e9…6df4backed Yes3c404.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.415133.3%17 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x712d…1d71backed Yes10c399.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes28c354.64$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x124b…a12cbacked Yes73c326.68$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.821154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes19c311.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.815334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c279.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes65c268.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.4417859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes7c261.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.514831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes21c259.08$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes12c256.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.621,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes12c254.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x89e3…5d22backed No80c253.12$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.976764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed No59c245.31$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4429459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9597…a850backed Yes60c243.38$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No61c231.98$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes20c227.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.013339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes40c219.26$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes17c217$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed Yes19c200.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.568143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes14c200$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef7…2978backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507319.2%14 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No64c200$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7128517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c197.41$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.654,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes30c181.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.998151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes15c166$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0835232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No60c165.65$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8599961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes16c155.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2640741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes62c150.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.314452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes8c149.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.156729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes21c149.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8160519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes10c149.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9220942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes16c146.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8851321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes13c142.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.361,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd777…f2f6backed Yes29c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes34c137.58$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.71637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes18c135.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.686137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes14c134.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.276918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes10c134.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0326327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa739…e31abacked No68c133.45$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.134953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No74c128.01$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.181,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No74c126.82$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes16c124.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No27c124.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0334618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes24c118.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4526265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2493…e9ffbacked Yes19c118.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes17c106.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.891,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d78…e218backed Yes14c105.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.953112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-78.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe471…6604backed Yes32c102.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6312856.3%72 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes20c101.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.977021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf66…3436backed Yes27c101.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.822050%10 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+122.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5c2c…7d3cbacked Yes32c100.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.571520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2510577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf62…fad7backed Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c99.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.891,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes16c99.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.412334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes25c98.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.491,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes14c97.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.717728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5178…06debacked Yes67c95.05$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+109.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed No76c91.7$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.117643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c88.77$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.368,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes21c88.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5813424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes21c88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f24…38a5backed Yes59c87.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.41825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes22c87.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1452935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0caa…48d4backed Yes27c78.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes15c74.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0932830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733b…f7f7backed Yes38c73.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.067847.4%37 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf21e…bcdbbacked No79c68.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.541266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes18c63.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No40c61.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9518041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c59.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes18c58.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes24c57.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1760121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes28c57.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.871618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+118%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeee…7c09backed No77c56.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.759351.6%48 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa6c…dd94backed Yes42c55.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.