TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes66c5,656$3,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.172,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c2,658$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.162554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No11c2,273$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked No73c2,007$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.5730919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No1c1,902$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.343021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes53c977.78$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.8312033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed No11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100419.8%4 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c688.28$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.635,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes68c620.47$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4525362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes40c578$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.816335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c465.02$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.137,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No3c430.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3936819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes63c400$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.41,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes35c360.11$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4919338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes28c347.18$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.2556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No54c339.37$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.262,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c319.21$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c311.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.446219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c0…01a4backed Yes24c300$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+81.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c267.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes24c257.88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1123035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c254.05$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes21c221.23$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.441,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x563c…2761backed Yes35c216.53$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+184.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes44c214.09$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.687416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes29c200$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes27c199.36$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.537143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No28c179.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0260121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes47c170.24$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6817643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c155.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.611,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes38c134.05$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7529640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes80c131.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.487653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes25c128.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.757728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes39c128.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.813042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No72c119.98$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3111731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes25c119.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.56918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes35c109.6$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.673842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd62c…4efcbacked No75c108.33$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.462365.2%15 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No78c106.79$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7731868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes31c104.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.126738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No64c99.1$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0728517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes35c99.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3513424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes62c98.28$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9626265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c97.42$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes25c97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.527021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes49c96.84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.391637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No48c94.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.181,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes30c93.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.794452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76c…9df3backed Yes28c91.06$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.196547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes37c87.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.081,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaca…51f6backed Yes23c85.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.513023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c83.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.123,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No66c80.93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.284,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes26c76.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.337129.6%21 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+82.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f3…92d6backed Yes33c75.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.914314%6 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No70c69.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7627167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes23c69.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.546747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No36c69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No59c68.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6919152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes29c65.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.558432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes27c64.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf21e…bcdbbacked No16c62.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes48c60.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8251321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733b…f7f7backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.27847.4%37 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.826236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes29c59.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.391752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c59.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c59.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272a…88cfbacked Yes30c59.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.391612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-69.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes28c59.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.712,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes32c58.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.213339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a80…7deabacked Yes32c57.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+49.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes33c56.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.671618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+118%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e48…99b9backed Yes35c53.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c63…fafebacked Yes28c53.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.562828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes26c53.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.457959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes34c53.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1814829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No69c53.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7725449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c52.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c2c…7d3cbacked Yes27c50.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.931520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes37c50.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0504…923abacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5178…06debacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+109.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4212735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c3…eea7backed Yes37c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes23c49.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3422028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes28c49.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.288942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1aa…480cbacked No63c48.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5485…0864backed No28c48.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.523318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No69c48.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4335168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes31c48.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.394535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes28c46.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4111341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked Yes36c45.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.811136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2912467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes30c40.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4832818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.