Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1863c906d7090f2f63f610b98218f27fa5ce3814f57dbebb826765d6a625bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 15c | 1,308$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 13c | 882$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 13c | 858$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes | 13c | 811$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked No | 79c | 739$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 21c | 737$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.23 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked Yes | 21c | 735$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed No | 79c | 733$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 20c | 147.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x918f…907cbacked Yes | 15c | 133.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 21c | 110.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…8272backed Yes | 29c | 92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed Yes | 28c | 78.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed Yes | 17c | 71.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5332…baafbacked Yes | 19c | 66.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 62.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 34c | 59.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 44c | 43.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…c11abacked Yes | 30c | 39.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 58c | 37.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 46c | 37.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 58c | 31.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…758ebacked Yes | 68c | 27.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 41c | 26.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 17.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?this page
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.