Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8b054b7f43143629055f292260584ac027d85898af44a0a5baf8fb20f953c4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 15c | 1,540$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 9c | 1,168$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…ff74backed No | 3c | 1,150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 32c | 1,135$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked Yes | 39c | 654.35$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 9c | 645.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 78c | 623.86$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 17c | 612$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 601.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 17c | 580.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 68c | 580$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 4c | 563.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 68c | 555$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 321.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 279$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 273.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed No | 9c | 270.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 9c | 244$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 7c | 215$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked No | 12c | 202.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 50c | 186.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 17c | 180.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…fab9backed Yes | 60c | 166.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 154.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…fc9bbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 86.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 23c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 19c | 83.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 72c | 65.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 18c | 62.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 75c | 55.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Yes | 77c | 55.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46da…724ebacked No | 61c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 60c | 50.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…bdbcbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…25c3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed No | 33c | 47.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb324…4944backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?this page
- Will 14–16 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?No won
- Will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?No won
- Will 5–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?No won
- Will 8–10 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.