Movies · resolved market
Will Overtime with Bill Maher win Best Short-Form Program at the 37th PGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c579ffaa3a43e72284459532db38dd3ac789d9d0538233a5d5d4e5710a610fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 59c | 894$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 76c | 741$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 24c | 497$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 37c | 474$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 41c | 456$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 63c | 424$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 41c | 356$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.04 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 41c | 316$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 59c | 316$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 63c | 314$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 24c | 244$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 37c | 188$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…6d61backed Yes | 40c | 162$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 37c | 161$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…dac4backed Yes | 40c | 157$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…255cbacked Yes | 40c | 157$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…16d9backed Yes | 40c | 149$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…6e75backed Yes | 40c | 148$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…e4babacked Yes | 40c | 147$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…03d8backed Yes | 40c | 142$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…5cb2backed Yes | 48c | 135$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…87f2backed Yes | 48c | 133$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…ac02backed Yes | 48c | 129$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…86debacked Yes | 48c | 126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…e614backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e1…09fbbacked Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…3515backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…1058backed Yes | 48c | 122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e1…4ac1backed Yes | 48c | 122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…acb5backed Yes | 48c | 121$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…d2e6backed Yes | 48c | 117$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…aa5bbacked No | 60c | 106$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bd…9dabbacked No | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ba…eba4backed No | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ca…c721backed No | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…cdebbacked No | 60c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…3a95backed No | 60c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…0b6abacked No | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c32…f5a3backed No | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846c…aa38backed No | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3f…1e05backed No | 60c | 94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc852…d06fbacked Yes | 76c | 91.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…e7ddbacked No | 52c | 86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…1b5dbacked No | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc4…8acfbacked No | 52c | 84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c632backed No | 52c | 84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…9215backed No | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 41c | 82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…7cfcbacked No | 52c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470a…5803backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…2da7backed No | 52c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…d586backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…3d4abacked No | 52c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…d706backed No | 52c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d5…3109backed No | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0db…e205backed No | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…65aebacked No | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…ca44backed No | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…d7d6backed No | 52c | 71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…1ed3backed No | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375c…79c2backed No | 52c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…8ea8backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Overtime with Bill Maher win Best Short-Form Program at the 37th PGA Awards?this page
- Will Adolescence: The Making of Adolescence win Best Short-Form Program at the 37th PGA Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.