NFL · resolved market
Will John Harbaugh join the Atlanta Falcons prior to April 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e6818207c6120a7126310b503e040173e6ad49df79daf191d8b9f33e2335ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 13c | 1,065$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 13c | 601$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 13c | 574$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 13c | 531$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 18c | 506.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 13c | 501$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 11c | 436$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed Yes | 13c | 434$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 11c | 425$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 13c | 379$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 13c | 376$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 13c | 352$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 11c | 317$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 13c | 314$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 11c | 294$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 13c | 275$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 13c | 275$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 13c | 244$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 13c | 225$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc19…0b8abacked Yes | 13c | 185.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 13c | 185$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 13c | 178$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…db92backed Yes | 31c | 160.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 13c | 147$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 13c | 119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 88.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 66.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6999backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 80c | 39.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Harbaugh join the Atlanta Falcons prior to April 23, 2026?this page
- Will John Harbaugh join the Cleveland Browns prior to April 23, 2026?No won
- Will John Harbaugh join the Las Vegas Raiders prior to April 23, 2026?No won
- Will John Harbaugh join the Miami Dolphins prior to April 23, 2026?No won
- Will John Harbaugh join the New York Giants prior to April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will John Harbaugh join the Tennessee Titans prior to April 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.